Corn:

WASDE Report came out Friday, and was the last report before we get the first cut of supply / demand in May for the 2021 Crops. Also, on Mondays’s Crop Progress Report, we had the first notice of National Corn Crop planted at 2%, which is within expects.

Viewpoint:

  • US: Carryout (c/o) dialed down again 10% (150 mbu) v. last month, but within expectations as exports were raised from 2.600 billon bus to 2.675, and feed number was raised by 50 mbu.
  • World: World corn carryout dropped nearly 4 million tonnes, which is mostly accounted for by the US numbers above. Brazil production number remained at 109 mmt, as it grows yet again, reminding us that is was a couple of crops ago that Brz went above 100 mmt for the first time.
  • Futures: Chicago Corn spiked Friday after the WASDE results, and traded above 500 for the first time this crop year, before closing nearly unched. Stiff measuring gap from 477.5 to 480.5 remains open as market turned north, which we pros never forget.
  • Spreads: Jly / Dec Corn spread remains stiff at 66 ish inverse which confirms old crop posture, but still below
  • Frames: 2020 corn crop against the July finally took out our frame with authority this week, which is to be expected. We will be making a move to the more liquid frame structure that will also dominate soybeans for the next few crops as we rotate from the big middle 2010s bear market to a more balanced s/sd structure when our new data becomes live in the Croptomize app. This means that all 2020 corn should be sold, or 100% downside protected as we turn focus to 2021, and the out years.2021 Corn will go live in the Croptomize Model either 5/4 or 5/11 depending on the planting progress report which comes out tomorrow (Monday, 4/12). Stay tuned here for updates on our first cut at the new crop, and rollout of our new frames. That gap is like a black hole’s gravity until a major fundamental shift forces us to ignore it.

COT: Commitments of Traders

Commercials:

  • All Crops: net short 748K contracts
  • Old Crop: net short 545.5K contracts (-14K against last week)
  • New Crop: net short 202k contracts (+10K against last week)

Funds:

  • All Crops: net long 381K contracts
  • Old Crop: net long 215K contracts
  • New Crop: net long 167K contracts