Grain markets largely shrugged off hard frosts and freezes that blanketed the northern half of the US and extended as far south as central KS. The image above shows just how cold it is relative to normal with yesterday’s temperatures largely 15-30 F below normal values for the date!
Despite a higher opening last night, corn and wheat sold off today and closed lower in a bearish reversal. Extended forecasts promising a sharp warming should allow corn emergence to accelerate and forecasts are amplifying rains for key wheat areas in KS and the EU. Rains are critically needed in western KS. Spring wheat closed higher as winter weather continues to delay planting and Friday’s COT report showed managed money funds record short a whopping 24,000 contracts. Spring wheat planting weather is set to improve from here and looks benign through the rest of the month. Soybeans are supported by an uptick in Chinese purchasing.
Tomorrow is the May crop production and world supply & demand (WASDE) reports from the USDA which will give us the first glimpse of the government’s take on new crop balance sheets. Corn ending stocks and winter wheat production are the headline features. The average trade guesses published by news outlets do not appear to be very informative this year, casting some doubt on how the market will trade in reaction to the published numbers. Corn, in particular, is widely expected to be bearish with new crop ending stocks in the 3-4 billion bushel range. That the corn s&d looks bearish is not exactly breaking news, though!