The first phase of the Croptomize Model has gone live in our app with 2020-crop corn and soybean hedge programs underway. Both markets began the crop year near the bottom of our hedging frames, with low volatility adding to the challenge and frustration of pricing this year for producers. Both crops went in the ground normally this year, with the exception of North Dakota, and certainly not like last year’s rain-delayed plantings. That being in the books leaves the growing season and the harvest to drive prices for the next 4 months and Croptomize is ready for whatever comes this year.
The June 30 Stocks reports brought a surprise to the market as farmers pulled more corn acres than were expected out of the mix, and the futures jumped while showing life for the first time this year. Croptomize had put out 25% of the corn hedge by the end of the week, and 33% of the soybeans as well, taking advantage of the price spike, as well as some steady export business to China. Not the price levels we saw last year, but the markets and world change, and this year sees a little challenge to the carry-outs outside of emerging drought in the US Southwest and Central Russia. Further, South America seems to be right on its production growth trajectory and the supply/demand architecture seems in place and back in balance after the major disruption of the tables to inject bio-fuels into the ag sector in the 2005 – 2014 decade.
Research in Blue Earth continues as we prep the model to add the 3 kinds of wheat to the engine in January 2021, and broaden the view of the system and maths to begin a more robust AI-deep learning system attack on the hedging and risk management problem. Databases are being added and aligned to begin to inject into the Croptomize mind to allow a more subtle approach to the markets and pricing production.